Tour de 2016

-Mr. Saurav Raj Pant, International Relations Resource Associate & Development Consultant

Take your long breath! We are slowing entering into the Cold War Season 2. This time Cold War would be multipolar rather than unipolar. The world probably won’t go under serious hardliner armed conflict in near future but tussle in political & economic ideological will mimicry the similar ‘WWI &WWII’ style. In the Western world, millennia’s will still continue to backpack for South but their established political elite will once again try to look from the window of Brussels & Washington try to fix out the problems of the globe seems irrelevance to the presence of Mr. Putin of Russia & Chinese Premier Mr. Xi. Millennia’s aren’t like Baby boomer generations dedicated to the contribution of the economy of the single country. Rather Millennia’s are interested in working for Gigonomy, does not want Car or apartment but wants to relocate frequently. Dubai & Doha in the Middle East, Mumbai & Delhi in South Asia, Pearl River Delta in China, Greater London & Berlin in Europe, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Dallas, New York City in the US & Toronto in Canada could possibly their favorite cities to relocate and these cities are contributing substantial amount to their economies comparing to other periphery cities of their countries.

According to me, this New Year 2017 will officially mark the entry of the world into Multi-polar and revival of nation states( representing by city) where the relevance of the International Relations will be profound than ever. Solving Climate Crisis, integrating Paris Climate Accord into small to giant countries, setting & working collaboratively to achieve SDGs, Middle East Crisis, Refugee crisis( the list could be longer) need International Relations or Westphalia approach. This is the age of collaboration & competition and if one side goes under turmoil the other side is going to be heavily affected. 

Germany’s AFD (anti-migrant party) grip in regional elections, emergence of Francois Fillon to become France’s center-right presidential candidate in next year’s election, Victor’s Orban’s rise in Hungary as a Prime Minister, Iben Thranholm, female Danish Journalist advocating for masculine power in European society & politics are some of the developments making the 2017 to be more erratic. As an alleged rape against European women, some of the feminist in Europe are arguing that European men have deeply de- masculinized & politics has become more liberals unable to counter the threats that are coming to Europe by foreign men. So, some feminists are lobbying for the revival of masculine power in European politics.

Some people claims this 2016 is a backlash of globalization, hard populism wave around the world, doom of OPEC oil cartel, death of an American democracy after Donald Trump president-elect, failed Columbian referendum, Brexit (list can be more) rather it is the seismic shift of power from North to South, shuffle of power within North, Chinese assertiveness via ‘OBOR’ around the globe, G77’s robust integration to global economy comparing to previous year. Probably I think this year shook the world more than 1989 when Berlin wall fell, in 1914 (when Westphalia World order had broken at the time of World war I), in 1945 (when the World War II ended & envisioned new world order). This is a volatile time for an international organization to show its relevance especially when UN is becoming so limited in recent Aleppo crisis. Today, Syria is deeply divided with many power holders on the ground. Today, there isn’t probably any magic formula to solve Syrian crisis and embolden crisis in Middle-East. Pro-government forces (Syrian Forces, pro-government militias, Hezbollah, Foreign Shia Militias, Iran, Russia), Opposition forces( Fee Syrian Army, Nationalist Jihadis, Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, United States, Turkey, Arab Gulf states) , Islamic State & Kurdish Peoples’ Protection Units have been the major players in the Syrian war. Moreover, in a political sense, Russia & USA vital strategic interest is contributing to pay the heavy cost for civilians of Syrian. The Sykes-Picot Agreement, Pan-Arab nationalism, deeply divided ethnic lines; Oil Cartel had made the Middle East deeply divided. What are the solutions to solve Middle East Crisis? The solutions could be redrawing Middle East map on the basis of ethnic, religious or on Geographical lines (or could be anything). The brainstorming could take long hours. The current world is highly unpredictable and assimilation of conflict into other parts of the world wouldn’t take a year or decades. In recent years, UN is politically locked, resourceful & less effective in addressing the global crisis. The 5 permanent members of the UN are seriously challenged by emerging power in Asia. India, Japan & Germany are increasingly lobbying to get the seat at UNSC. This has made UNSC, a place like ‘house of thrones’ where multiple powers are playing against each other.

The other issues that buzz 2016 were also inequality. US president-elect Donald Trump major logic to increase jobs in the US was cutting major taxation of the multinational companies. When huge taxation is cut off these companies could expand their business for the creation of jobs for young people. Inequality isn’t something that has been brought from Mars or Moon. Rather it is the policy failure of respective governments. Making access to education for everyone could be the starting point for reducing inequality and this could be powerful ‘mantra’ for the country like Nepal where access to education for everyone has been a ‘fairly tale’ for a years (In Nepal, major portions of the national budget get freeze, if we able to save budget from freezing by maximum utilization of it, this is possible).

Taxation has been the bargaining point between Political candidate & high tax payers during the time of the election. The top labor wants to decrease tax as much as possible and deal with the potential political candidate for the vote on the basis of this tax reducing modality. In a long term, this is seriously creating inequality by the process of accumulation of wealth in few handfuls of elites

In such highly unpredictable world, what should be our priority as a Nepali? We hold visa-free access to 40 countries which is mainly in Africa and is on the list of 87 out of 95 countries and our economy by GDP (PPP) is in 93 out of 186 countries (China is in the first place & India is in third place). How could we able to improve the Nepal position in these global rankings? I think the hollow nationalism that Nepal is currently witnessing which sends 1500 youth to gulf daily; smartly overlook the series of sexual violation that is taking place against our migrant women workers in abroad and remittance lover’s politicians won’t solve these crises. So, what will be the alternative path for Nepal’s radical transformation? It’s time to act.